Following MAS’s unchanged policy stance, economists expressed divided views. While some flag diminishing export acceleration, others argue MAS is rightly pausing to assess the impact of earlier easing measures.
1. Survey of Economists
According to a Reuters survey published July 25, twelve leading economists were evenly split between a policy hold and additional easing at the upcoming July review. Although growth surprised in Q2, concerns remain about post‑frontloading slowdown. CNA+7Reuters+7Reuters+7ING Think
2. Supporting Arguments for Easing vs Hold
Proponents of further easing argue the global environment remains fragile, and frontloaded growth is likely to dissipate. Conversely, maintainers emphasize MAS’s recent policy shifts already provide cushion and warrant observation before further adjustment.
3. External Risk and Domestic Sensitivity
Trade disruptions from delayed tariff phases, geopolitical tension, and supply chain shifts remain unpredictable. MAS is seen preferring a reactive posture until clearer signs emerge on inflation and domestic investment.
4. Policy Band Mechanics Remain Central
Analysts note MAS still retains tools—slope, midpoint or width adjustments—to ease if necessary. Those favoring a hold suggest that MAS may opt for structural slope flattening rather than immediate intervention.
5. Singapore Growth Fine-Tuning
Maybank predicts Singapore’s 2025 GDP could top 3.2%, higher than government estimates. Yet the MAS’s cautious tone reflects preparedness for potential downside in late 2025 if export demand falters.
Editor’s Note:
MAS’s decision to pause reflects strategic patience. For investors, timing will matter—watch for subtle shifts in policy communication rather than explicit rate moves.
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mas‑economist‑survey, singapore‑growth‑forecast, export‑frontloading, policy‑timing